It’s been a rough year for the PC market so far, with shipments falling more than expected. However, the decline in demand is expected to last only through 2023, according to research firm IDC.
In a research note(Opens in another window) Anticipating industry trends, IDC today warned of “tumultuous times ahead for the PC and tablet markets.” By 2022, it expects PC shipments to decline 12.8% year over year to 305 million units, down from 349 million.
“Further contraction is also expected in 2023, as consumer demand has slowed, education demand has been largely met, and business demand has been pushed out by worsening macroeconomic conditions,” IDC added.
As a result, the research firm predicts that PC shipment volumes in 2023 will be below 300 million units.
IDC attributes the weakening demand to the economic downturn that began in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic began, inflation and a surge in PC purchases. The latter forced people on the go to work and study at home, driving demand for computers to levels not seen in a decade.
That demand has since cooled, leading to big dips in CPU shipment numbers. “With economic headwinds picking up speed, we expect worsening consumer sentiment to cause further contraction in the consumer market over the next six quarters,” says IDC analyst Linn Huang.
The good news is that shipment forecasts for 2022 and 2023 remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic PC market numbers. In 2019, the sellers sent them(Opens in another window) Just 266 million units. In 2018, the figures were slightly lower with 259 million units.
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IDC also expects the market to return to growth in 2024. “Long-term demand will be driven by a slow economic recovery combined with an enterprise hardware refresh as support for Windows 10 nears its end,” says IDC analyst Jitesh Ubrani. “Educational Implementations”. and hybrid work is also expected to become a medium for driving additional volumes.”
Another research firm, Omdia, is also on the lookout(Opens in another window) Notebook PC shipments will decline 15.5% year over year in 2022. However, Omdia predicts that the notebook PC market can expect positive growth of 1% in 2023, but only if the Russia-Ukraine war ends before the end of this year.
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